Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
Ez Harris W
I’m off that week so I predict I’ll be pretty drunk regardless of the result
Jill Stein comes from behind to take the surprise win. Dems and Republicans both claim it’s stolen.
Violence.
I mean, we’re already a capitol storming and a few assassination attempts in. You need to be a bit more specific.
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
They’ll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. There’s no avoiding it.
What does Trump winning have to do with Anarchy?
They mean in the “chaos” sense, not the Lemmy-friendly sense.
On the other hand, a severe degradation of federal institutions would by necessity promote community-based cooperation. Like in any other disaster, natural or otherwise.
Nobody wants to see it happen this way, but it might be the catalyst we get.
Same story we saw in 2016, Trump has no policy other than destroying American institutions and the status quo, so people get this sort of collapse fetish and pick him for that reason alone.
You’re a piss poor anarchist if you want the the orange fascist to win
Anarchism is not chaos, which is what it seems like you think it means. Anarchism is the opposition to hierarchy and is thus directly opposed to fascism and therefore Trump. No anarchist wants to see Trump win because it means fascism has won.
Yep. Too many people think anarchy is throwing bricks at windows. It just means opposing hierarchy. Hoping a fascist wins is the literal opposite of that
Would U.S.A. foreign policy be drastically affected by who becomes the president?
As a non-American, I think it’d have more impact on the people of the U.S.A and maybe immediate neighbours like Mexico.I don’t know, to quote someone I read here: “The world shits when the US farts”
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
That maybe a consequence but US foreign policy might improve or remain unchanged under Trump.
Haha, u kidding?
They will improve with authoritarians, where Trump can personally benefit from.
For everyone else it will worsen and set global policies back by at least one decade.
Improve in the sense it will stop butting it’s nose everywhere.
foreign policy might improve under Trump
Let’s see, Israel kills all Palestinians, Russia takes over Ukraine, then North Korea and China initiate actions against South Korea and Taiwan. You have an unusual definition of improve.
Israel will kill Palestinians no matter who comes to power in US. Maybe if Israel doesnt pay him personally anything he might reduce their supplies. If they pay him as they pay all the other politicians it will be business as usual.
At least there would be a chance that spineless and derelict UN will fall.
Trump said he will let Israel “finish the job”. STFU.
I agree Biden now n Harris if she comes next won’t overtly support Israel like Trump. They will just send them arms n ammunition as usual while giving soundbites against them.
The 1% will benefit.
Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I’ll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform…
Trump outperformed polling in both of the last elections, and the polls are much closer now, so if he even just outperforms the same amount as before he wins.
I think the polls have tried to correct for this, and I also believe Kamala has huge and sophisticated ground game operation aimed at turnout while Trump’s team seems completely disorganized. So I wonder if that advantage in operational sophistication counts for anything.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true
Gamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
You’re not wrong, it’s because leftists are generally more critical of gambling.
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
You could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
I wouldn’t rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people’s beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth…
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there’s a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
This page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
It’s gonna be a shitshow.
Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.
Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.
Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.
Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.
They don’t ever figure it out.
Very plausible. If you need any recipes for when the California vegetables stops coming HMU, I’ve made a project out of it.
So basically “how to speedrun dictatorship”
Whoever wins … the country will fight about the result for the next four years and completely obscure any reasonable debate or conversation about anything of importance like inflation, wealth inequality, war, the military industrial complex or creeping fascism.
If America doesn’t get its act together during this election … it’s just taking another step towards becoming a failed state and will break apart within the next decade or two. But it won’t be a war or anything too dramatic … it will just look and sound like a never ending slapfest between shouting children and crying babies who threaten each other but never actually do anything except leave the room with all their toys.
Don’t make me hope.
Love a War Games reference.
Whoever wins…
We lose.
The one comment that unites both liberals and conservatives in their hatred of the left.
Both of you can GTFO with your negativity, imo.
This is like two stumbling drunk parents arguing over who’s better to drive everyone home and telling the kids “shut up you’re not helping!” when they suggest taking a cab.
