A computer program winning a Go tournament.
In chess, human grandmasters routinely beat the best computers, but changing that was simply a matter of faster processors and larger memory, problems solvable by the application of sufficient quantities of money. In principle the game was already solved, and within a few decades, would be solved in practice as well.
Go was considered a much harder problem. Programs of similar complexity to a decent chess program couldn’t even look at a finished game between go pros and reliably say who won, let alone get there itself. Well, guess what?
Going to Mars.
I had a job at the time that let me WFH maybe once every 2-3 weeks and I thought it was crazy generous lol.
Now I’m home virtually every day.
Self driving cars.
We are on the early stages currently; ignore what Tesla/musk says; in 10 - 20 years full level 5 autonomy will be common place.
In the 80’s the Cray 1 supercomputer was made, now I have so much more computer power in my pocket its frankly ridiculous. And it’s runs on milliwatts rather than kilowatts.
Honestly not convinced, we’ve been promised self driving cars for almost a decade and we unearthed way more problems than ways of getting closer. And honestly, there are soo many situations where even I’m not sure what the correct course of action would be, so I’m not holding my breath for an AI sourcing from our collective actions.
That may not be the way.
But don’t forget, all advances are cumulative.
I work in the automotive industry. I believe we could be there in 10 to 20 years, but I’m not convinced we will be there.
Specifically, because vehicle autonomy has been a big buzz word in the industry for a decade or so, and it’s starting to lose its zing. And when buzzwords lose their zing, the money dries up and the industry moves on.
Things like speed-adjusting cruise control and lane-keeping assistance, for example, are trivial to implement from a technological standpoint and don’t cost much to add. But they don’t show up in too many vehicles, because consumers stopped caring. I worked on a trailer backup assistance feature in a 2015 pickup that added zero production cost, but very few vehicles implement anything like that. Not because they’re not valuable features, but because the industry loses interest and moves on.
The automotive feature that boggles me most is 4-wheel steering (where the rear wheels can move about 10 degrees or so). I’ve driven a vehicle with this feature, and it’s an absolute game-changer. And it doesn’t cost that much to implement either. Too bad the big OEMs don’t care, because once you’ve driven one, you want it on every vehicle ever. Sigh.
End rant.
Besides parking, what other benefit is there for 4-wheel steering?
General maneuverability is the main benefit. The back wheels more closely follow the front wheels, so for situations like a curved drive-through (curbs on both sides) or even just making turns on roads with narrow lanes, it’s easier to not clip the curb (or other vehicles) on the inside of your turn. And at high speeds, you can implement “crab walk” to make lane changes easier. It makes a big difference with towing as well.
There is a massive profit motive, especially for trucking companies.
When there is enough money tho be made, it will be implemented.
I agree the logistics industry wants it. Though I think there may be problems to be solved for autonomous deliveries outside of the driving aspect (that is, the driver does a lot more than just drive). So I wonder if it’ll pick up more if some of the other roadblocks for that are resolved…
I’m super curious how they will handle inclement weather where lanes cease to exist. And drive thrus. How will it handle a drive thru fully autonomously?
The same way we do.
Slow down; drive by feel; look to the sides for trees, sign posts, other markers, knowing the roads.
Real answer…
GPS accurate enough to tell the car where the lanes are.
Drive thru wouldn’t be too bad, it’s essentially stop and go traffic. Plus, when full autonomy happens, drive thrus will become less common. You can just pre-order your food while the car is driving you to the restaurant. The restaurant will tell the car how long the food will take, and what parking spot to use. Then your car will tell the restaurant your ETA, and notify them exactly when you arrive. Food is waiting, so you just grab the bag and go.
Yeah the issue with predictions around things like autonomous vehicles is it assumes tech advancements will flow in one direction/domain. There are still serious limitations of current AI systems in regards to autonomous vehicles and the next breakthrough may not be one relevant to that domain.
Its certainly possible, but we’ve basically been on the current autonomous vehicle hype for about 10 years already.
Nuclear War.
I though leaders were cool headed and rational, that they would never destroy the world.
Then I learned about Cuban Missile Crisis with Vasily Arkhipov, and the radar false alarm invident with Stanislav Petrov, amongst many more “close call” incidents. Our world almost died.
I mean like: If the many-worlds theory is true, there are probably some universes where WW3 happend and most of life is dead. Probably every 9 out of 10 universes, we died. We are alive because of luck. (I mean, we wont exist to be able to perceive a dead universe anyways).
But that can happen again. Its not over.
The “Doomsday Clock” is a prediction by scientists of existential risk to humanity, and these scientists are predicting an even more tense doomsday risk than ever before, even more so than the height of the Cold War.
(I actually had a dream/nightmare of see a nuke go off outside my window. Maybe its a vision of another timeline, or the future… 🤷♂️)
Sometimes when I hear a plane fly over head I pause and wonder if this is the end. Or if things get too quiet I wonder if I am about to be swept away in the fallout of a huge explosion.
Lol, I sometimes have network issues, then I wonder if russia (I live in the US, for context) has their putin raging for some reason and decided to nuke us for the lols. I mean, when a nuclear war happens, network disruptions usually happena right before. So I check the news, reddit, make sure I didn’t miss any emergency alerts, then I realize its just a normal internet issue.
Sometimes I hear emergency sirens for no reason for an extended period of time, and I wonder if theres been some sort of attack, whether a terrorist bombing, or a nuke exploding in a nearby city, I google it, oh its just some police chase. Idk why I’m always overreacting.
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Mine was that: I was on my phone, my phone goes blackscreen, then I look up, lights flicker a bit and turn off, I look at my laptop, and it also dies 2 second later after flickering, then I look outside my window, a huge mushroom cloud, then I wake up. And I woke up with like panic and heartrate so fast…
Honestly, maybe my brain is trying to tell me to write a story about nukes.
You should check out the book “Recursion” by Black Crouch. Probably won’t help with your nightmares though
The mortality of my parents. My mind is often stuck in the future of what ifs; but this is an inevitable event that will come sooner or later and it terrifies me. I do my best to cherish the time I’m fortunate to have with them while channeling energy into my own kids. I know it’s the natural cycle of things, but still… Life is hard man.
watching the decline is hard. I thought my dad would live forever. He’s been gone just over a year. My mom probably won’t be around much longer either. Let them tell you as many boring stories as they can.
I’m sorry, friend. Hope you’re doing well.
Yeah I honestly love the stories. Heard them all a thousand times, of course, but they never get old — especially knowing…
Anyways I can weather a lot of pain, but when it comes to my loved ones I’m a wreck.
I know that feeling and you’re not alone. It’s terrifying and I don’t know how others handle it or if everyone just keeps quiet about it or live in ignorance about that fact. Also doesn’t help that I don’t believe in an afterlive.
Everyone grieves in their own way. My mom died when I was 36. My dad died this year. It was really rough for a while when my mom died, it made my alcoholism worse, which lead to me losing my job, which made my alcoholism worse. I had horrible nightmares that I woke up screaming from for about six months. Eventually, with the help of my wife, I put my life back together.
I wasn’t close with my dad, he left when I was young. Pretty much feel the same since he died.
When it happens just do what feels natural. Your loved ones will understand. If you have kids try to explain it to them once you get a good grasp on it yourself. There aren’t any answers at the bottom of a thousand bottles of vodka though, I can promise you that much.
I’m atheist as well. My mom was a severely mentally ill alcoholic and she’s genuinely better off dead. If there was a hell, my dad would be in it, so I’m glad there isn’t. I think it’s more comforting, not less.
I appreciate your thoughtful and honest comment. Yeah, I don’t know… I’m really close with both my parents. That certainly makes it worse. We’ve been through a lot of shit. My parents separated once in my teens, then fully completed the divorce under COVID under my house with my wife and our first kid. Was a nightmare that made covid orders of magnitude worse — but we got through it. I got my dad out of his suicidal/homicidal mania; I got my mom clean off alcohol with the help of my sister and wife… They’ve both still got a lot of flaws, but at least now my parents are at least on speaking terms for the sake of their grand-kids and us. In some ways, despite all the turmoil of the world, I know these are going to be some of the better years where I can enjoy their company and see the nostalgia in their eyes as they spend time with my kids. We grew up religious but my whole family shifted toward agnosticism over the years, so yeah, I don’t expect much after death but it’s hopeful thought despite my better judgement I suppose…
My math teacher: “You can’t walk around with a calculator in your pocket!”
Well well well, look at me NOW, Mr. York!
never opens calculator app
Hah, I suck at math so I use it all the time
Arithmetic was easy for me. It made sense. What didnt make sense was finance and accounting. That shit exists just to muddy waters and hurt people. 5
I have a calculator in my pocket that I can talk to and it’ll talk back. “Hey Bixby, what’s half of five and three-eighths?”
About 33% of the time the dumb bitch comes back with “Okay, here’s what I found on the internet.”
I don’t know if people were really talking much about this kinda stuff back then, but a PC like device that wasn’t a laptop that allowed you to play full-on PC titles at home, either hooked to a TV or on its own, or on the move. Especially a device that also allows you to do normal computer things outside of playing games.
Again, not including laptop since I personally don’t know any people who actually used their laptops for playing games while in a moving vehicle. There probably are plenty of people who did it or do it, but I don’t know any.
WW3
I’ve realised, over time, that we got to be species number 1 through near statistically impossible odds that is only achievable by being the most brutally effective in the game of evolution.
And millions of years of nature doesn’t just go away when you’re declared the winner. It is in our nature to dominate through all means possible, else we wouldn’t be here. It’s not so much that we want war, we need it; our nature is founded on it. When there is nothing left on the planet to defeat, we turn on ourselves to scratch the itch.
The catch is the other half of our nature is focused on domination of the species. We protect each other for the greater good as much as we kill for the greater good. That’s our human nature; that’s how we got here. So after a war we feel awful and promise to never do it again, but then the itch of being number 1 reappears and there’s nothing else to scratch it with because we conquered everything else.
Our known history affirms that the end-game of evolution is a never ending cycle of masturbating to awful shit, feeling ashamed, and just doing it again once the shame is overridden by the urge. “Never again” we say, every fucking time.
Edit: That’s why I also love the self-proclaimed “lefties” camp always misappropriating the philosophical Paradox of Tolerance on here—like it’s not misappropriately used by the other camps. Ironically all just proving the paradox true. Camp vs camp. Tribe vs tribe. The itches and scratches, Oblivious to human nature doing as it does best. To progress is to win by all means possible. This is our way.
Edit Edit: And no I’m not picking on you kids specifically. Look at Tall Poppy Syndrome, Soapboxes, why communism never works, why capitalism never works; all the other ideologies we think up to break the cycle and try fast forward our evolution in vain. They all end with with someone or something taking power for a brief moment, before they’re targetted to be cut down by the nature of others trying to instill their idea, how they want it, how they insist all others will want and should have it. Power.
True. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to break the cycle. Although we are heading towards another great conflict, we are currently in an era with less hunger, more education, and less poverty throughout the world than ever before. We clearly did something right. Let’s try to do even better in the future. Lets evolve, step by step, cause that Is was are good at!
Oh, yeah. We definitely keep trying to break the cycle, else we’ll all be extinguished at some point. It won’t be broken in the near future, but over many generations of each doing their part, it will eventually evolve into something better; the old perks of the species no longer relevant or needed, eventually evolved out.
Whether or not we can survive ourselves in the meantime is a whole new hurdle in our path.
I was laughed at on the playground when I got the idea for wireless charging back in the 90s.
Nikola Tesla was working on proof of concept from 1900 until JP Morgan pulled project funding in 1917.
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My man Nikola would have invented FTL travel had he lived six months longer
Wireless power transfer/charging. The only thing even alluding to it being possible when I was growing up, was Nikola Tesla’s work; and most people thought most of his ideas were bunk.
I sometimes wonder if tesla was successful in his expiements but realized how it could be quickly weaponized or has some other moral implications so that he destroyed all his research.
He’s ideas were interesting.
But practically, he didn’t have a method to transport power without wires.
Yes, running wires is difficult. But trying to transmit power is staggeringly inefficient.
Im surprised to see this pop up multiple times. If my device more or less is still plugged in with wireless chargers (as it can’t really be “off” the pad) it’s really not that impressive to me. Not to mention we’ve been pumping power through the air since the first radio.
If my device could charge anywhere within a certain radius (feet/meters), that would be impressive.
Satellite navigation. In my early childhood we sometimes played a street racing video game that had an arrow pointing the direction on the screen. My mom would remark that she wished she had such an arrow when she drove a car IRL, by now she definitely got that wish.
Wait, how old is consumer satnav? I am pretty sure it was available (albeit not too commonplace) when I was a kid in the late 90’s or early 2000’s. I really do take it for granted… As long as my government doesn’t deliberately scramble it for security reasons, which happened a lot in the past year.
Dedicated units were available from brands like TomTom in the early 2000’s, and cell phones started getting it around 2007 or so (I remember very expensive blackberry plans had it around then). Android launched with it in 2008, and iPhones started allowing apps like Google Maps with turn by turn navigation by around the end of 2012 or so.
I think my family at least got it in the early-to-mid 2000s, a few years after that.
I don’t remember my first gps, but maybe early 2000’s. It was a Garmin, with no route planning, no maps and the position was coordinates
GPS is now like mini maps in racing games.
You should have tried the GPS we had when I was training with the PLUGR.
Burning a CD while using your computer for something else in the mean time.
That’s come full circle as many modern machines don’t even have disc drives anymore
Back in the 90s part of my job was to change the daily backup tape on a computer when I got there in the morning. It was an 8GB cassette the size of a deck of cards, and I remember marveling that I could carry 8 Gigabytes in my shirt pocket. Now you can get thumb drives for $20 that hold many times more, and thousands of times more than my first hard drive. (which cost about a grand)
Lol, that seems like a pain. God bless robotic tape libraries.
Phones doing a good chunk of what computers can
A good chunk? My watch is far more capable than my first computer, many times the storage, and its screen has more pixels
Combined with the Internet a “phone” - as we still charmingly call it - does what the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy could do.
I mean it’s almost wrong handed to call something like an iPhone or Android device a “phone” because it’s really a pocket computer that, among many other things, can place phone calls.
For that reason, I like how they are called Hand Terminals in the Expanse (books, I dont think they are referred to at all in the show)
In fact the thing that irritates me is how useless a smart phone is without a connection to the internet. You have to put in actual effort to make actual use of its local power.
